Study · Nov 5, 2026

Big market drops: what usually happens next

The S&P 500 fell 4.36% on Nov 5, 2026. We looked at every drop like it since 1950 and what the index did in the next day, month and year.

S&P 500 close
7,353.731
Worst day since
Apr 4, 20251
See what came next

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Read https://www.astor.app/research/stock-market-selloffs.md and explain what usually happened after big S&P 500 drops like the one on Nov 5, 2026: how often the index was higher later, how much further it fell, and how long it took to recover. Cite the sources in the file.

Works with ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity or any agent that can open a link. Page: astor.app/research/stock-market-selloffs

Nov 5, 2026 in context

  • S&P 500−4.36%

    46th-worst day since 19501

  • Nasdaq−5.52%

    36th-worst day since it began in 19712

  • Dow−3.44%

    Worst day since Apr 4, 20252

S&P 500 is 6.0% below its Oct 6 record

See what drove it

See how rare a 4% day is

A drop this size puts Nov 5 among the worst 0.3% of trading days since 1950.

57

Days down 4% or more since 1950, Nov 5 included

1 in 339

Trading days, on average

57 of 77

Years with no 4% drop

46th

Worst day of 19,334 since 1950

Most days, the S&P 500 moves less than 1%

All 19,334 trading days since 1950, by how much the index closed up or down.
23710172551105207Nov 5: −4.36%−6%−4%−2%0%+2%+4%+6%
Sources1

Big drops come in bunches

S&P 500 days down 4% or more, per year. 57 of 77 years since 1950 had none.
0510152019501960197019801990200020102020’26
Sources1
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See what drove the drop

Investors sold the companies that build AI data centers and the chips that go in them, after the Nov 3 midterms raised the odds of limits on new data centers.

These are the reasons reported the same day. Markets react to many things at once, so no single cause fully explains a drop.

  1. Nov 3Election

    Democrats won the House, the Senate and key governor races. In Texas, governor-elect Gina Hinojosa wants an immediate moratorium on new data centers. Wells Fargo puts 27% of planned data-center capacity in Texas. 87

  2. Nov 4Relief rally

    The S&P 500 rose 1.6%, its best day since August. Data-center suppliers didn’t join in: Vistra fell 14% and Vertiv 13% on moratorium fears. 17

  3. Nov 5Sell-off

    Chip and AI stocks led the market down. Weaker results from Qualcomm and Arm added to it. By the close, the S&P 500 had given back all of Wednesday’s gain and more. 75

Every sector fell, chips most

One fund per S&P 500 sector, plus chipmakers. The black tick is the S&P 500 itself.

  • Chipmakers SMH−11.2%
  • Technology XLK−8.0%
  • Industrials XLI−4.1%
  • Consumer discretionary XLY−3.8%
  • Energy XLE−3.0%
  • Materials XLB−2.9%
  • Financials XLF−2.9%
  • Health care XLV−2.5%
  • Real estate XLRE−1.8%
  • Consumer staples XLP−0.8%
  • Utilities XLU−0.7%
  • Communication services XLC−0.6%
Scale 0% to −12%Sources 4

The index fell more than the average stock

  • S&P 500−4.4%
  • Average stock−2.9%

The S&P 500 gives its biggest companies the most weight, and they fell most. The equal-weight version counts every stock the same. 4

AI stocks fell the hardest

Large companies tied to AI data centers, and the rest of the seven biggest US stocks.

Chips and memory

  • SanDisk SNDK−22.3%
  • Micron MU−17.5%
  • AMD AMD−17.3%
  • Marvell MRVL−16.4%
  • Arm ARM−13.1%
  • Broadcom AVGO−10.4%
  • Intel INTC−10.3%
  • Qualcomm QCOM−9.5%
  • Nvidia NVDA−9.3%

Data centers and power

  • CoreWeave CRWV−9.8%
  • GE Vernova GEV−7.5%
  • Oracle ORCL−7.0%

Rest of the biggest seven

  • Tesla TSLA−10.8%
  • Meta META−4.0%
  • Microsoft MSFT−3.6%
  • Alphabet GOOGL−2.2%
  • Amazon AMZN−2.2%
  • Apple AAPL−1.5%
Scale 0% to −25%Sources 4

$447B

Stock-market value Nvidia lost on Nov 5 410

28.2

The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, up from 16.6 the day before 4

4.84%

10-year Treasury yield, down from 4.90% as investors bought bonds 6

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See what the S&P 500 did next

Pick a drop size. Each dot is one drop and where the index stood after it.

Big drops come in bunches, so a single crisis can weigh heavily here. 21 of the 57 days with a 4% drop since 1950 came in the sell-off that began Sep 15, 2008. Counting only the first 4% day of each sell-off, the median change a year later was +14.3%. Figures are for the price index, without dividends.

Before Nov 5, the S&P 500 fell 4% or more on 56 days since 1950. A year later it was higher 84% of the time, with a median gain of +23.5%. Picking any day at random, those figures are 75% and +10.7%.

  1. Next day56 drops

    64%any day 53%
    +1.4%any day +0.1%
    −20.5%+9.3%

  2. 1 week56 drops

    57%any day 57%
    +1.2%any day +0.3%
    −18.3%+19.1%

  3. 1 month56 drops

    64%any day 62%
    +2.3%any day +1.1%
    −18.2%+23.4%

  4. 3 months56 drops

    73%any day 67%
    +7.3%any day +2.7%
    −26.2%+38.1%

  5. 6 months56 drops

    77%any day 71%
    +13.5%any day +5.2%
    −34.8%+46.8%

  6. 1 year56 drops

    84%any day 75%
    +23.5%any day +10.7%
    −15.9%+71.0%
Higher Lower Median, or any-day share on the barsEach row has its own scale. Hover a dot for the date.
Sources1

How much did today cost you?

Astor connects your brokerage and retirement accounts and shows how a day like this hit each thing you own.

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Trace the year after each sell-off

How the S&P 500 moved from the close of each sell-off’s first 4% day. The Nov 5 close is the orange dot at zero.

The median is the middle outcome, not a forecast. A year after past sell-offs, the middle half of outcomes ran from −1.6% to +21.8%, and the full range was much wider.

20 past sell-offs, from their first 4% day

S&P 500 change from the close of each sell-off’s first 4% day. The shaded band is the middle half of past outcomes.
−40%−20%0%+20%Drop day1 mo2 mo3 moMedianNov 5 close
Sources1

  • 1 month after

    −1.1%

    Median of past sell-offs

    Middle half: −5.9% to +3.4%

  • 3 months after

    +6.4%

    Median of past sell-offs

    Middle half: +1.7% to +8.4%

  • 1 year after

    +14.3%

    Median of past sell-offs

    Middle half: −1.6% to +21.8%

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See how deep past sell-offs went

For every sell-off since 1950 that began with a 4% day: how much lower the S&P 500 went after that day, and how long it took to get back.

Getting back to the pre-drop level didn’t always mean the worst was over: in 2000 and 2008 it took days, and the biggest falls came later. Some sell-offs happened inside the same bear market (2000 to 2002, 2022), so they share a low. The 5 that started within 10% of a high, as Nov 5 did, fell at most another 8%. That’s a small sample, and it doesn’t say how this one ends.

Median further fall after the 4% day
−8.2%
Fell another 10% or more
7 of 20
Back to the pre-drop level within a month
10 of 20
  1. AI chip sell-offNov 5, 2026 · −4.36% · 6% off its high

    This is the drop the study starts from. What comes next isn’t known yet.

  2. Tariff announcementApr 3, 2025 · −4.84% · 12% off its high · 2 days of 4%+−7.7%Back to pre-drop level4 weeksBack to its high3 months
  3. Hot inflation reportSep 13, 2022 · −4.32% · 18% off its high−9.0%Back to pre-drop level5 monthsBack to its high16 months
  4. Inflation and rate hikesMay 18, 2022 · −4.04% · 18% off its high−8.8%Back to pre-drop level7 daysBack to its high1.7 years
  5. Covid-19Feb 27, 2020 · −4.42% · 12% off its high · 9 days of 4%+−24.9%Back to pre-drop level4 daysBack to its high6 months
  6. Volatility spike (“Volmageddon”)Feb 5, 2018 · −4.10% · 8% off its high−2.6%Back to pre-drop level3 weeksBack to its high7 months
  7. Euro crisis, US downgradeAug 4, 2011 · −4.78% · 12% off its high · 4 days of 4%+−8.4%Back to pre-drop level3 monthsBack to its high7 months
  8. Lehman Brothers failsSep 15, 2008 · −4.71% · 24% off its high · 21 days of 4%+−43.3%Back to pre-drop level4 daysBack to its high4.5 years
  9. 2002 bear marketSep 3, 2002 · −4.15% · 26% off its high−11.5%Back to pre-drop level2 monthsBack to its high2.2 years
  10. Markets reopen after 9/11Sep 17, 2001 · −4.92% · 30% off its high−25.2%Back to pre-drop level4 weeksBack to its high5.6 years
  11. Dot-com bust deepensMar 12, 2001 · −4.32% · 23% off its high−34.2%Back to pre-drop level5 weeksBack to its high6.2 years
  12. Dot-com bustApr 14, 2000 · −5.83% · 11% off its high−42.7%Back to pre-drop level2 daysBack to its high7.1 years
  13. Russia default, LTCMAug 31, 1998 · −6.80% · 19% off its highNoneBack to pre-drop level9 daysBack to its high3 months
  14. Asian financial crisisOct 27, 1997 · −6.87% · 11% off its highNoneBack to pre-drop level7 daysBack to its high6 weeks
  15. Friday the 13th mini-crashOct 13, 1989 · −6.12% · 7% off its high−3.2%Back to pre-drop level3 monthsBack to its high7 months
  16. Trade-deficit shockApr 14, 1988 · −4.36% · 23% off its high−3.4%Back to pre-drop level2 monthsBack to its high15 months
  17. Black MondayOct 16, 1987 · −5.16% · 16% off its high · 5 days of 4%+−20.8%Back to pre-drop level16 monthsBack to its high1.8 years
  18. Rate and program-trading scareSep 11, 1986 · −4.81% · 7% off its high−2.2%Back to pre-drop level2 monthsBack to its high3 months
  19. Flash crash of 1962May 28, 1962 · −6.68% · 24% off its high−5.7%Back to pre-drop level2 daysBack to its high15 months
  20. Eisenhower’s heart attackSep 26, 1955 · −6.62% · 7% off its high−4.3%Back to pre-drop level2 monthsBack to its high2 months
  21. Korean War beginsJun 26, 1950 · −5.38% · 7% off its high−7.9%Back to pre-drop level3 monthsBack to its high3 months

Bars share one scale, 0% to −50%. Darker bars fell another 10% or more. Times count trading days.

Sources1

See what a deeper drop would do to you

Ask Astor what a 10% or 20% fall would mean for your portfolio, across every account you connect.

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See where the best days fall

15 of the 20 best days for the S&P 500 since 1950 came within a week of a 4% drop.

Big gains and big losses cluster in the same rough stretches. Someone out of the market after a drop would often have missed the rebound days too.

The best and worst days, side by side

The 20 biggest one-day gains and losses for the S&P 500 since 1950. Filled green dots came within 5 trading days of a 4% drop.
−20%−10%0%+10%+20%19501960197019801990200020102020
Sources1
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What the history shows

The study in five points.

None of this says what happens after Nov 5. It shows the range of what happened after drops like it, from 1950 on.

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Common questions

Is this a crash?

There’s no official line. A 10% fall from a high is usually called a correction and 20% a bear market. At the Nov 5 close the S&P 500 was 6.0% below its Oct 6 record, and the Nasdaq was more than 10% below its own, a correction. 19

Should I sell?

This page can’t answer that for you. It depends on when you need the money, how much of a drop you can sit through, and what you own. History shows what happened after past drops, not what will happen after this one.

Does a big drop usually lead to a bigger one?

Sometimes. Of the 20 finished sell-offs since 1950 that began with a 4% day, 11 ended 20% or more below their high. In every one of those, the index was already 10% or more below its high when the 4% day came. The 5 that started within 10% of a high, like this one, bottomed 9% to 14% below it. That’s a small sample, and it doesn’t tell you how this one ends. 1

Why start at 1950?

Daily S&P 500 data goes back to 1928, but the free series we use leaves out the Saturday sessions the market held until 1952 and has errors in the 1930s, so some early drops come out wrong. From 1950 its biggest moves match the published record. The 1930s had far more big drops, and weaker results after them. 13

Do these returns include dividends?

No. They use the S&P 500 price index, so they leave out dividends, which have added roughly 1% to 2% a year in recent decades. Taxes, fees and inflation are not included either. 1

Look at your portfolio, not just the index

The S&P 500 is one number. Astor connects to your brokerage, retirement and crypto accounts, shows how a day like this hit what you own, and answers your questions by text.

  • See how today’s drop hit each account
  • Find which holdings drove it
  • Ask what a deeper fall would mean for your plan
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AstoriMessage

  • Rough day. How much did I lose?

  • Your accounts are down 3.1% today, about $4,800. Nvidia and your Nasdaq fund drove most of it. Your bond fund barely moved.

  • What if it keeps falling?

  • Here’s what a 10% and a 20% fall would do to each account, next to when you said you need the money. Want to go through it?

Illustrative example. Not a recommendation.

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Use this data with your agent

Every number on this page is also published as Markdown and JSON, with its source. Point your agent at either one. Free, no key or sign-up.

Read https://www.astor.app/research/stock-market-selloffs.md and explain what usually happened after big S&P 500 drops like the one on Nov 5, 2026: how often the index was higher later, how much further it fell, and how long it took to recover. Cite the sources in the file.

Works with ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity or any agent that can open a link. Page: astor.app/research/stock-market-selloffs

Sources and method

Daily closes from Jan 3, 1950 through Nov 5, 2026. Published Nov 5, 2026; the numbers won’t change.

  • Daily closes of the S&P 500 price index since Jan 3, 1950. A drop is the change from one close to the next.
  • Returns after a drop run from that day’s close: 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days later.
  • A sell-off starts with a 4% day that comes more than 63 trading days after the last one. Later 4% days count toward the same sell-off.
  • The high is the highest close in the 52 weeks before the drop. The low is the lowest close before the index got back to that high.
  • Checked against the published list of the S&P 500’s 20 biggest daily gains and losses, and against the Nov 5 closes reported by AP. Until mid-1952 the market also traded some Saturdays, which this series leaves out.
  • Sector moves use the Select Sector SPDR funds, one per S&P 500 sector, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF for chipmakers.

Past performance does not predict future results. Returns leave out dividends, taxes, fees and inflation. This page is for information only, not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any security.

  1. 1Yahoo Finance · S&P 500 (^GSPC) daily closes since Jan 3, 1950 · Nov 5, 2026
  2. 2Yahoo Finance · Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) since 1971 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) since 1992, daily closes · Nov 5, 2026
  3. 3Wikipedia · List of largest daily changes in the S&P 500 Index (used to check the data) · Nov 5, 2026
  4. 4Financial Modeling Prep · Closing quotes for sector funds, stocks and the VIX, Nov 5, 2026 · Nov 5, 2026
  5. 5Associated Press · How major US stock indexes fared Thursday 11/5/2026 · Nov 5, 2026
  6. 6Associated Press · AI data-center concerns trigger a sell-off on Wall Street · Nov 5, 2026
  7. 7Fortune · Wall Street’s best post-midterm rally in 44 years lasted just one day · Nov 5, 2026
  8. 8CNBC · Stock market today: Live updates · Nov 5, 2026
  9. 9Fox Business · Stocks plunge as Dem midterm sweep fuels AI regulatory concerns · Nov 5, 2026
  10. 10CNBC · Magnificent 7 loses $1 trillion. The most eye-popping stats from Thursday’s tech stock plunge · Nov 5, 2026