# Big market drops: what usually happens next

> The S&P 500 fell 4.36% on Nov 5, 2026. We looked at every drop like it since 1950 and what the index did in the next day, month and year.

- Canonical page: https://www.astor.app/research/stock-market-selloffs
- JSON: https://www.astor.app/research/stock-market-selloffs/data.json
- Published: Nov 5, 2026; closes through Nov 5, 2026. The numbers are fixed and won’t update.

General information, not a recommendation. Past performance does not predict future results.

## Nov 5, 2026

- S&P 500: −4.36% to 7,353.73, the 46th-worst day of 19,334 since 1950, and the worst since Apr 4, 2025 [1]
- Nasdaq Composite: −5.52%, the 36th-worst day since 1971, the worst since Apr 4, 2025 [2]
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: −3.44%, the worst since Apr 4, 2025 [2]
- S&P 500 is 6.0% below its Oct 6, 2026 record close of 7,818.93 [1]

## What drove the drop

Investors sold the companies that build AI data centers and the chips that go in them, after the Nov 3 midterms raised the odds of limits on new data centers.

- Nov 3, 2026, election: Democrats won the House, the Senate and key governor races. In Texas, governor-elect Gina Hinojosa wants an immediate moratorium on new data centers. Wells Fargo puts 27% of planned data-center capacity in Texas. [8] [7]
- Nov 4, 2026, relief rally: The S&P 500 rose 1.6%, its best day since August. Data-center suppliers didn’t join in: Vistra fell 14% and Vertiv 13% on moratorium fears. [1] [7]
- Nov 5, 2026, sell-off: Chip and AI stocks led the market down. Weaker results from Qualcomm and Arm added to it. By the close, the S&P 500 had given back all of Wednesday’s gain and more. [7] [5]
- Sector funds: Chipmakers (SMH) −11.2%, Technology (XLK) −8.0%, Industrials (XLI) −4.1%, Consumer discretionary (XLY) −3.8%, Energy (XLE) −3.0%, Materials (XLB) −2.9%, Financials (XLF) −2.9%, Health care (XLV) −2.5%, Real estate (XLRE) −1.8%, Consumer staples (XLP) −0.8%, Utilities (XLU) −0.7%, Communication services (XLC) −0.6% [4]
- Chips and memory: SanDisk −22.3%, Micron −17.5%, AMD −17.3%, Marvell −16.4%, Arm −13.1%, Broadcom −10.4%, Intel −10.3%, Qualcomm −9.5%, Nvidia −9.3% [4]
- Data centers and power: CoreWeave −9.8%, GE Vernova −7.5%, Oracle −7.0% [4]
- Rest of the biggest seven: Tesla −10.8%, Meta −4.0%, Microsoft −3.6%, Alphabet −2.2%, Amazon −2.2%, Apple −1.5% [4]
- S&P 500 −4.4% vs equal-weight S&P 500 −2.9% [4]
- Stock-market value Nvidia lost on Nov 5: $447B [4] [10]
- The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, up from 16.6 the day before: 28.2 [4]
- 10-year Treasury yield, down from 4.90% as investors bought bonds: 4.84% [6]

## How rare

- Days down 2% or more since 1950: 445 of 19,334
- Days down 3% or more since 1950: 133 of 19,334
- Days down 4% or more since 1950: 57 of 19,334
- Days down 5% or more since 1950: 30 of 19,334
- Years since 1950 with no 4% drop: 57 of 77

## What the S&P 500 did next

Change in the price index from the close of each drop day. "Any day" is the same figure for every trading day in the period.

### Drops of 2% or more since 1950 (444 days before Nov 5, 2026)

| After | Higher | Any day: higher | Median | Any day: median | Worst | Best |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Next day | 55% | 53% | +0.2% | +0.1% | −20.5% | +10.8% |
| 1 week | 58% | 57% | +0.6% | +0.3% | −18.3% | +19.1% |
| 1 month | 65% | 62% | +2.4% | +1.1% | −24.1% | +25.1% |
| 3 months | 70% | 67% | +5.6% | +2.7% | −29.6% | +39.4% |
| 6 months | 72% | 71% | +9.2% | +5.2% | −44.8% | +46.8% |
| 1 year | 75% | 75% | +17.2% | +10.7% | −47.6% | +74.8% |

### Drops of 3% or more since 1950 (132 days before Nov 5, 2026)

| After | Higher | Any day: higher | Median | Any day: median | Worst | Best |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Next day | 58% | 53% | +0.3% | +0.1% | −20.5% | +10.8% |
| 1 week | 56% | 57% | +0.6% | +0.3% | −18.3% | +19.1% |
| 1 month | 61% | 62% | +1.7% | +1.1% | −24.1% | +23.4% |
| 3 months | 70% | 67% | +6.0% | +2.7% | −26.4% | +38.1% |
| 6 months | 76% | 71% | +10.0% | +5.2% | −41.1% | +46.8% |
| 1 year | 83% | 75% | +21.6% | +10.7% | −37.7% | +71.0% |

### Drops of 4% or more since 1950 (56 days before Nov 5, 2026)

| After | Higher | Any day: higher | Median | Any day: median | Worst | Best |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Next day | 64% | 53% | +1.4% | +0.1% | −20.5% | +9.3% |
| 1 week | 57% | 57% | +1.2% | +0.3% | −18.3% | +19.1% |
| 1 month | 64% | 62% | +2.3% | +1.1% | −18.2% | +23.4% |
| 3 months | 73% | 67% | +7.3% | +2.7% | −26.2% | +38.1% |
| 6 months | 77% | 71% | +13.5% | +5.2% | −34.8% | +46.8% |
| 1 year | 84% | 75% | +23.5% | +10.7% | −15.9% | +71.0% |

### Drops of 5% or more since 1950 (30 days before Nov 5, 2026)

| After | Higher | Any day: higher | Median | Any day: median | Worst | Best |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Next day | 77% | 53% | +3.1% | +0.1% | −20.5% | +9.3% |
| 1 week | 67% | 57% | +3.6% | +0.3% | −13.1% | +19.1% |
| 1 month | 70% | 62% | +2.8% | +1.1% | −16.1% | +19.9% |
| 3 months | 63% | 67% | +6.7% | +2.7% | −21.4% | +29.8% |
| 6 months | 77% | 71% | +12.7% | +5.2% | −27.9% | +41.8% |
| 1 year | 87% | 75% | +23.5% | +10.7% | −12.1% | +66.1% |

## Sell-offs since 1950 that started with a 4% day

Of 20 finished sell-offs: the median further fall after the 4% day was −8.2%, 7 fell another 10% or more, and 10 were back to the pre-drop level within a month. 1 bottomed less than 10% below the 52-week high, 8 10% to 20% below, 11 20% or more.

| Sell-off | First 4% day | Drop | From high that day | Lower after the 4% day | Lowest from high | Back to prior close | Back to high | 1 year later |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| AI chip sell-off | 2026-11-05 | −4.36% | −6.0% | not known yet | not known yet | not yet | not yet | n/a |
| Tariff announcement | 2025-04-03 | −4.84% | −12.2% | −7.7% | −18.9% | 4 weeks | 3 months | +22.6% |
| Hot inflation report | 2022-09-13 | −4.32% | −18.0% | −9.0% | −25.4% | 5 months | 16 months | +14.6% |
| Inflation and rate hikes | 2022-05-18 | −4.04% | −18.2% | −8.8% | −25.4% | 7 days | 1.7 years | +6.8% |
| Covid-19 | 2020-02-27 | −4.42% | −12.0% | −24.9% | −33.9% | 4 days | 6 months | +27.9% |
| Volatility spike (“Volmageddon”) | 2018-02-05 | −4.10% | −7.8% | −2.6% | −10.2% | 3 weeks | 7 months | +3.1% |
| Euro crisis, US downgrade | 2011-08-04 | −4.78% | −12.0% | −8.4% | −19.4% | 3 months | 7 months | +15.9% |
| Lehman Brothers fails | 2008-09-15 | −4.71% | −23.8% | −43.3% | −56.8% | 4 days | 4.5 years | −11.7% |
| 2002 bear market | 2002-09-03 | −4.15% | −25.5% | −11.5% | −34.1% | 2 months | 2.2 years | +16.9% |
| Markets reopen after 9/11 | 2001-09-17 | −4.92% | −30.3% | −25.2% | −47.8% | 4 weeks | 5.6 years | −15.9% |
| Dot-com bust deepens | 2001-03-12 | −4.32% | −22.7% | −34.2% | −49.1% | 5 weeks | 6.2 years | −1.2% |
| Dot-com bust | 2000-04-14 | −5.83% | −11.2% | −42.7% | −49.1% | 2 days | 7.1 years | −12.1% |
| Russia default, LTCM | 1998-08-31 | −6.80% | −19.3% | 0.0% | −19.3% | 9 days | 3 months | +37.9% |
| Asian financial crisis | 1997-10-27 | −6.87% | −10.8% | 0.0% | −10.8% | 7 days | 6 weeks | +21.5% |
| Friday the 13th mini-crash | 1989-10-13 | −6.12% | −7.3% | −3.2% | −10.2% | 3 months | 7 months | −10.1% |
| Trade-deficit shock | 1988-04-14 | −4.36% | −22.9% | −3.4% | −25.5% | 2 months | 15 months | +14.1% |
| Black Monday | 1987-10-16 | −5.16% | −16.1% | −20.8% | −33.5% | 16 months | 1.8 years | −2.5% |
| Rate and program-trading scare | 1986-09-11 | −4.81% | −7.3% | −2.2% | −9.4% | 2 months | 3 months | +34.9% |
| Flash crash of 1962 | 1962-05-28 | −6.68% | −23.6% | −5.7% | −28.0% | 2 days | 15 months | +26.1% |
| Eisenhower’s heart attack | 1955-09-26 | −6.62% | −6.6% | −4.3% | −10.6% | 2 months | 2 months | +7.4% |
| Korean War begins | 1950-06-26 | −5.38% | −6.7% | −7.9% | −14.0% | 3 months | 3 months | +16.5% |

Median path of the finished sell-offs: 1 month −1.1% (middle half −5.9% to +3.4%); 3 months +6.4% (middle half +1.7% to +8.4%); 1 year +14.3% (middle half −1.6% to +21.8%).

## Best days near worst days

- 15 of the 20 best S&P 500 days since 1950 came within 5 trading days of a 4% drop.
- Best days: 2008-10-13 +11.58%, 2008-10-28 +10.79%, 2025-04-09 +9.52%, 2020-03-24 +9.38%, 2020-03-13 +9.29%, 1987-10-21 +9.10%, 2009-03-23 +7.08%, 2020-04-06 +7.03%, 2008-11-13 +6.92%, 2008-11-24 +6.47%, 2009-03-10 +6.37%, 2008-11-21 +6.32%, 2020-03-26 +6.24%, 2020-03-17 +6.00%, 2002-07-24 +5.73%, 2022-11-10 +5.54%, 2008-09-30 +5.42%, 2002-07-29 +5.41%, 1987-10-20 +5.33%, 2008-12-16 +5.14%

## Questions

### Is this a crash?

There’s no official line. A 10% fall from a high is usually called a correction and 20% a bear market. At the Nov 5 close the S&P 500 was 6.0% below its Oct 6 record, and the Nasdaq was more than 10% below its own, a correction. [1] [9]

### Should I sell?

This page can’t answer that for you. It depends on when you need the money, how much of a drop you can sit through, and what you own. History shows what happened after past drops, not what will happen after this one.

### Does a big drop usually lead to a bigger one?

Sometimes. Of the 20 finished sell-offs since 1950 that began with a 4% day, 11 ended 20% or more below their high. In every one of those, the index was already 10% or more below its high when the 4% day came. The 5 that started within 10% of a high, like this one, bottomed 9% to 14% below it. That’s a small sample, and it doesn’t tell you how this one ends. [1]

### Why start at 1950?

Daily S&P 500 data goes back to 1928, but the free series we use leaves out the Saturday sessions the market held until 1952 and has errors in the 1930s, so some early drops come out wrong. From 1950 its biggest moves match the published record. The 1930s had far more big drops, and weaker results after them. [1] [3]

### Do these returns include dividends?

No. They use the S&P 500 price index, so they leave out dividends, which have added roughly 1% to 2% a year in recent decades. Taxes, fees and inflation are not included either. [1]

## Method

- Daily closes of the S&P 500 price index since Jan 3, 1950. A drop is the change from one close to the next.
- Returns after a drop run from that day’s close: 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days later.
- A sell-off starts with a 4% day that comes more than 63 trading days after the last one. Later 4% days count toward the same sell-off.
- The high is the highest close in the 52 weeks before the drop. The low is the lowest close before the index got back to that high.
- Checked against the published list of the S&P 500’s 20 biggest daily gains and losses, and against the Nov 5 closes reported by AP. Until mid-1952 the market also traded some Saturdays, which this series leaves out.
- Sector moves use the Select Sector SPDR funds, one per S&P 500 sector, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF for chipmakers.

## Sources

1. Yahoo Finance, "S&P 500 (^GSPC) daily closes since Jan 3, 1950" (Nov 5, 2026): https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
2. Yahoo Finance, "Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) since 1971 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) since 1992, daily closes" (Nov 5, 2026): https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC/history/
3. Wikipedia, "List of largest daily changes in the S&P 500 Index (used to check the data)" (Nov 5, 2026): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index
4. Financial Modeling Prep, "Closing quotes for sector funds, stocks and the VIX, Nov 5, 2026" (Nov 5, 2026): https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs
5. Associated Press, "How major US stock indexes fared Thursday 11/5/2026" (Nov 5, 2026): https://krmg.com/2026/11/05/how-major-us-stock-indexes-fared-thursday-11-5-2026/
6. Associated Press, "AI data-center concerns trigger a sell-off on Wall Street" (Nov 5, 2026): https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ai-data-center-concerns-trigger-205202808.html
7. Fortune, "Wall Street’s best post-midterm rally in 44 years lasted just one day" (Nov 5, 2026): https://fortune.com/2026/11/05/wall-street-drop-off-tech-ai-plunge-2-trillion/
8. CNBC, "Stock market today: Live updates" (Nov 5, 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
9. Fox Business, "Stocks plunge as Dem midterm sweep fuels AI regulatory concerns" (Nov 5, 2026): https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stocks-nov-5-2026
10. CNBC, "Magnificent 7 loses $1 trillion. The most eye-popping stats from Thursday’s tech stock plunge" (Nov 5, 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/stock-market-selloff-ai-fears.html

Published by Astor (Gaus, Inc. DBA Astor, SEC-registered investment adviser, CRD #338424). For information only; not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.